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The Ashes could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate a greater number of birthdays than Timezone in the 90s. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is over.

Ageing Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been growing fascination with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test team being over 30, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and custody-weekend visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that older age was a disadvantage: a Test squad boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are well into their careers.

I've never felt this sure at the start of an Ashes tour | a former player

Perhaps what most amplified the talking point is that the backup bowlers over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also deep into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Injuries

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have continued performing. Any team knows that having a batch of same-generation players might mean a group of similarly-timed departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, change is upon them, forced upon this Aussie team in the space of a few weeks. The back injury to Pat Cummins was greeted with equanimity: he would probably only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two key bowlers absent rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the stability and precision that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the composition of the side. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his domestic career, but he has been so successful in Test matches coming on after seven or eight overs of initial onslaught. Now he’ll probably have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at 31 years old himself isn't an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the ground on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

Sign up to The Spin

It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, and others. It's unclear what new injuries the first Test may cause. It's unknown whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how complicated stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Outlook Uncertain

The latter part of the contest may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is apparently next in line and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this level is no place for gradually starting one’s work. Beyond them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that train a-coming, rolling round the bend, and the English team hasn't seen the sunshine since they don’t know when.